Nicaragua Elections: Too Close to Call
While the opposition is divided, Daniel Ortega leads a well-oiled political machine deeply intermeshed with government agencies staffed by FSLN cadres. Ortega heads the polls, but the outcome could be decided by last-minute support for his main rivals.
10/17/2006
Richard Feinberg,
Latin Business Chronicle
n the November 5 elections, Nicaraguans will select among four experienced presidential candidates, each representing a major historical tradition in Latin American politics. Nicaraguans have never before faced so many meaningful options – a luxury for voters that makes predictions a very risky business.
There is a real possibility that Daniel Ortega, caudillo of the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN), will return to the presidency (which he held following the 1979 revolution until losing the 1990 elections). But Ortega’s re-emergence has little to do with the wave of grassroots populism passing through the South American Andes. Rather, Ortega leads a well-oiled political machine deeply intermeshed with government agencies staffed by FSLN cadres. His opposition is divided, and he has successfully maneuvered to reduce to 35 percent (along with a 5 percent margin over the second-place candidate) the minimum required to win a first-round victory and avoid a run-off – polls consistently show that some 60 percent of Nicaraguans would under no circumstances vote for him.
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