Keeping Peace on the Korean Peninsula
01/27/2006
John Patrick Ford,
San Diego Daily Transcript
North Korea has returned to the negotiating table. Two years ago the communist regime of Kim Jung Il closed its borders, again, to any intrusion into its nuclear activity in defiance to President Bush’s fragmented foreign policy for the Korean Peninsula. What does Kim want from us now?
Seeking fresh insights into the diplomatic merry-go-round that has spun nowhere for over five decades, I joined a symposium in November at University of California, San Diego hosted by the Korea Economic Institute. A panel headed by Charles Kartman, former U.S. ambassador to South Korea, focused on the six-party talks that resumed in July and the current economic plight of North Korea.
“North Korea has made an art of being paranoid,” Kartman noted when asked why the communists truly believe the U.S. is a threat to their sovereignty. That’s why they maintain an active military force of over one million positioned on the 38th parallel to ward off perceived invasion. The real threat is against the Republic of Korea, according to another panelist from the Korea Economic Institute. Destructive missiles launched from the north could cripple Seoul in minutes.
A fifty-two-year armistice without a treaty to end the Korean War is the misfortune of U.S. diplomacy in Northeast Asia. “North and South Korea have seldom been on the same page with America,” Kartman explained. There is a good cop, bad cop syndrome going there, he added.
China is proud to be a major factor in the current six-party talks, according to Susan Shirk, a China expert on the UCSD faculty. It’s like hosting the Olympics to get a global admiration. However, the Chinese want a three-track agenda – nuclear containment, a peace treaty and economic aid. They also want to link Taiwan to the Korean “solution,” not an option on the U.S. agenda.
The second session of the UCSD symposium featured a member of the Treasury Department speaking on his personal views on North Korea. His concern is the traffic in illicit trade. Counterfeit U.S. currency and cigarettes, now boosted by growing drug exports, support the thin veneer of a trade balance with so many sanctions still against the rogue nation.
The previous U.S. Ambassador to South Korea, Thomas Hubbard, dropped in at UCSD a year ago for an unscheduled visit and some conversation with a small group gathered together on short notice. His candid comments about politics and diplomacy on the Korean Peninsula during the freeze on nuclear talks were enlightening.
“It’s not as bad as it looks,” the ambassador reminded himself every morning as he arose in Seoul and checked the latest media releases covering his diplomatic turf. At the time, the republic’s new president, Roh Moo-hyun, was impeached, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty talks with North Korea were on hold and the reality of industrial competition from China had hit South Korea’s GDP growth rate.
Despite the usual bad news, Hubbard was positive about making progress with the northern communist regime for removing nuclear weapon capability. “I was more comfortable sitting in a room with four other nations during the last round of talks,” he confided. Many years of bi-lateral negotiations did not work. Now China, Japan, Russia and South Korea are dealing with this threat to global security.
At an earlier forum presented by UCSD’s School of International Relations/Pacific Studies, a South Korean official talked about his nation’s future in global trade. Dr. SaKong Il, former Finance Minister, now CEO of a trade institute in Seoul, was on tour promoting an Asian Free Trade Association. China’s rapid industrial growth challenged Japan to be top exporter. South Korea and Taiwan didn’t want to be lost in the competitive race for world markets.
The speaker launched his free-trade theories with a story. “Americans start a speech with a joke. Asians start with an apology. If there is nothing to apologize for, then the speaker must find one,” he said with a sly smile.
President Roh’s party eventually captured control of the legislature that had previously impeached him, signaling the decline of the powerful chaebols (family conglomerates) that have controlled Korean industry for decades. Foreigners consider these monopolies, once the engines of Korean prosperity, to be an impediment to the country’s future in global trade
Ambassador Kartman endorsed many of the theories extended by the earlier speakers during the November symposium. He praised U.S. efforts to get South Korea “into the room” for the six-party talks. However, future negotiations will continue to be clouded by six different agendas at the table.
Will the Korean Peninsula be unified was a popular query for the panel. Not in our lifetime was the candid response from the ambassador; maybe in 50 years, he ventured.
Why so long? South Korea is not keen on undertaking the rehabilitation of the north after a century of social and fiscal neglect. They recall the German unification sacrifices. It looks like the centuries-old “Hermit Kingdom” of North Korea may continue isolated a few more generations.
Due to global sensitivity to North Korea’s possession of nuclear technology, an acceptable treaty will be complex. Having nuclear energy is top priority for Kim Jung Il. He is not likely to give any concessions unless he gets it. “That’s why there is no applause for a treaty with North Korea,” Kartman observed.
Editor’s note: The next commentary in this series will examine China’s global impact as an emerging capitalist economy.
Ford is a freelance writer located in San Diego. He can be reached at johnpatrick.ford@sddt.com.
