Emilie Hafner-Burton and David Victor's Talk on the Psychology of Decision Making
The Behavioral Psychology of Elite Decision Making: Implications for Political Cooperation
11/09/2011
UCLA International Institute
Professors Emilie Hafner-Burton and David Victor gave a talk on the behavioral pscyhology of how treaties are negotiated, ratified, and implemented.
Using experiments drawn from behavioral economics and cognitive psychology and a substantive survey focused on international trade treaties, Hafner-Burton and Victor suggest that the personality traits of the people asked to play key roles in negotiating, ratifying and implementing international treaties also shape their preferences for how treaties are designed and put into practice. Patient subjects were more likely to seek treaties with large numbers of issues and countries (and thus larger long-term benefits) and to lobby for treaties that create long-term benefits by opening markets despite immediate adjustment costs. Although theory suggests that enforcement plays a large role in effectiveness of international commitments, we find mixed and limited evidence that enforcement has much impact on our subjects’ willingness to join treaties. We also find that subjects with the skill to anticipate how other players will respond over multiple iterations of strategic games are much more likely to favor treatydesigns that involve large numbers of countries. In contrast with players who have fewer strategic skills, these players are likely to imagine that the strategic challenges of large membership are manageable. Our study, based on a sample of [550] university students, provides a baseline for future experimental and survey research on actual policy elites who design and implement treaties.
Click here to listen to the talk.
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Emilie Hafner-Burton and David Victor are co-Directors of the Laboratory on International Law and Regulation (ILAR). Looking across a wide array of issues from environment and energy to human rights, trade and security, the Laboratory explores when (and why) international laws actually work.
