Tai Ming Cheung Referenced on the Diplomat
Measuring Military Modernization
04/14/2012
M. Taylor Fravel,
The Diplomat
The U.S-China Security and Economic Review Commission (USCC) recently published a staff research paper entitled "Indigenous Weapons Development in China's Military Modernization" that generated a great deal of media attention. One story noted that the report showed how the United States had "missed the emergence of significant military developments" and was "blinded by Beijing." Another report concluded from the paper that "the United States has underestimated the growth of China's military."
What did the paper actually say? It examined the development of four weapons systems: the Yuan-class (Type 041) diesel-powered submarine, the SC-19 anti-satellite missile, the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile, and the J-20 aircraft. Reviewing U.S. analysis of these development of these systems, the paper concluded that "there are no universal trends in publicly reported U.S. government analysis on the development of indigenous Chinese weapon systems." According to the paper, only the emergence of the Yuan-class submarine was unexpected. As for the other systems, the paper's main contention is that analysts miscalculated the speed or rate of the development of these systems, but not their emergence.
Click to read the full article.
Related Links
Tai Ming Cheung is an associate research scientist at the University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC) located at the University of California, San Diego in La Jolla. He directs the Minerva program on Chinese security and technology, a multi-year academic research and training project funded by the U.S. Defense Department to explore China’s technological potential.
