Susan Shirk on China's Ascension to Global Power Could be Derailed
Chen Case Reveals Fragile Chinese Communist Party Could Lead to 'Failed State'
05/03/2012
John T. Bennett,
U.S. News & World Report
Beijing's handling of a case involving a blind activist suggests dangerous political divisions at the top of the ruling Communist Party, splinters experts warn could plunge China into chaos.
The world is riveted by the fate of Chen Guangcheng, who took refuge at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing after escaping house arrest last week. While Chen appears disappointed with a U.S.-brokered deal that led to his release, the incident accelerated China's move toward a political and economic crossroads.
The Asian giant's rise to superpower status has been fueled by economic and social reforms. But experts say there are signs the Communist Party, fearing losing power, are in the midst of pumping the brakes on those changes while giving more leeway to the nation's brutal security forces.
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Susan Shirk is the chair of the 21st Century China Program and Ho Miu Lam Professor of China and Pacific Relations at the School of International Relations and Pacific Studies (IR/PS) at UC San Diego. She also is director emeritus of the University of California system-wide Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC) and chair of the IGCC International Advisory Board.
In 1993, she founded, and continues to lead, the Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue (NEACD), an unofficial “track-two” forum for discussions of security issues among defense and foreign ministry officials and academics from the United States, Japan, China, Russia, and the Koreas.
