Lei Guang Details His Optimism Toward Change in China
Reform in China: the reasons for optimism
11/28/2012
Lei Guang,
UT San Diego
China’s 18th Party Congress ended in an anticlimax on Nov. 14. It broke no new ground and disappointed hopes for intraparty democracy. Amid scandals, personnel speculations and secrecy-induced suspense, the party congress has produced a Politburo of seven cautious and colorless politicians.
But are all hopes lost for significant change in the next five years? Could this group of leaders surpass expectations by taking some bold steps in the direction of economic and political reform?
Contrary to the opinion of many expert commentators, I am more optimistic about changes that could take place in the next few years. One obvious basis for such optimism is the depth of crisis faced by the Chinese Communist Party. Cumulative social, economic and political “contradictions” in China have reached a boiling point that will compel action. With rising protests from the masses and division among the elites, the new leadership knows that the risk of reform is now far outweighed by the risk of doing nothing.
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Lei Guang is the founding Director of the 21st Century China Program. Prior to joining UC San Diego, he was Professor of Political Science at San Diego State University where he also directed the University’s Center for Asian and Pacific Studies from 2009-2011. He received his PhD in political science from the University of Minnesota-Twin Cities. He is currently working on projects that seek to understand the causes of social conflict in China (and India), and responses by the grassroots states. His scholarly publications have appeared in numerous volumes and journals such as Politics & Society, International Migration Review, Critical Asian Studies, Pacific Review, Journal of Contemporary China, China Quarterly, Modern China, and etc. He also serves on the editorial board of China Quarterly and the China Journal.
